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USDA NASS reported that 74% of the US corn crop was harvested as of November 1, three points behind the five-year average, with Iowa 13 points behind its average. Soybean harvest reached 88%, four points ahead of the five-year average.
Forecasts call for multiple rounds of rain to slow fieldwork in parts of the Plains and Midwest.
Corn harvest slightly behind pace could delay some deliveries and support near-term basis, while soybean progress ahead of average adds to available supply. The net price effect is modest because the crop report mostly confirms expectations.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
