China's urea futures rebounded on Nov 2, with the main contract at 1,737 yuan/t, as traders anticipated an Indian urea import tender reportedly exceeding 2.5 million tonnes. Chinese producer inventories rose to a record 1.80 million tonnes, while ex-works prices were raised to around 1,740 yuan/t.
A large Indian tender would absorb export supply while international urea supply is already tightening, supporting global urea prices. Chinese record inventories and weak domestic demand cap the upside, so the rally depends on the tender actually being announced.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.