Crude Oil Market Analysis: OPEC+ Steady Output, Iran War Disrupts Supply

After 442 past bullish policy events, BRENT moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Sep 5, 2022OPEC+ agrees to make token supply cut to steady oil market-0.9%
• Apr 3, 2024OPEC+ Keeps Oil Output Steady As Crude Prices Soar+2.8%
• Mar 4, 2021OPEC shocks oil markets with plan to keep crude output constrained+5.2%
• Apr 2, 2023Oil leaps 6% as OPEC+ shocks markets by cutting output target+7.4%
• Sep 6, 2026OPEC, Allies Agree to Keep Oil Output Steady in October - WSJ+12.0%

After 438 past bullish policy events, WTI moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Sep 5, 2022OPEC+ agrees to make token supply cut to steady oil market+1.0%
• Apr 3, 2024OPEC+ Keeps Oil Output Steady As Crude Prices Soar+0.1%
• Mar 4, 2021OPEC shocks oil markets with plan to keep crude output constrained+5.1%
• Apr 2, 2023Oil leaps 6% as OPEC+ shocks markets by cutting output target+5.4%
• Sep 6, 2026OPEC, Allies Agree to Keep Oil Output Steady in October - WSJ+9.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.