
Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ held supply at current levels, apart from modest increases for Russia and Kazakhstan, surprising markets that had expected a larger restoration. Saudi Arabia made its extra 1 million bpd voluntary cut open-ended, keeping about 7 million bpd off the market.
The surprise hold keeps crude prices firm, raising energy and transport costs and adding inflation pressure that can spill into feed input prices.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.