The peso appreciates, bonds fall and uncertainty grows over reserves

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Nov 11, 2016Uncertainty over Trump leads to reevaluation of rate cuts in Brazil - BNamericas+0.7%
• Jul 19, 2018Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso lose ground against the dollar — MercoPress-3.5%
• May 15, 2018Brazil's real continues its slump amid election uncertainty | AP News+2.4%
• Jul 29, 2024Economic uncertainties still prevent rate cut in Brazil, official says | Reuters+1.4%
• May 21, 2018Brazilian Real, Turkish Lira And Mexican Peso Are Casualties Of Recent Slow Down In Global Growth-2.3%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• May 15, 2018Argentine peso takes fresh hit amid uncertainty | Buenos Aires Times-2.7%
• Nov 27, 2024Outlook 2025 LATAM FX: MXN, CLP, and COP Under Uncertainty | Pepperstone-0.4%
• Mar 31, 2023IMF unlocks $5.4 bln in funds to Argentina, boosting reserves | Reuters-0.7%
• Feb 24, 2025Oilseed crush industry sees unprecedented growth, reshaping grain and feed industries | Feed & Grain-1.1%
• Oct 29, 2026The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.-3.3%