Sterling was broadly steady against the dollar and euro as investors looked ahead to an expected Bank of England rate hike on Thursday, its first since August 2023. Brent crude fell about 4.5% to $108.37 on optimism about a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict, but remained far above pre-Iran war levels.
The BoE is expected to tighten because energy-driven inflation is forecast to rise above 4%, which supports the pound. Crude's decline eases inflation pressure, but Brent remains elevated, keeping energy costs high for feed producers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.