Dollar steadies as U.S. midterms loom; euro digests Fitch outlook downgrade

After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2025Pound steadies against dollar as US trade tariffs loom-0.5%
• Jul 2, 2021Dollar's near-term outlook bright, but to fade in a year+0.1%
• Jun 25, 2021Dollar steady after U.S. inflation data misses estimates+0.4%
• Feb 16, 2024Dollar steady after producer prices push back on Fed rate cut outlook-0.1%
• Feb 26, 2025US dollar rises as economic, tariff outlook gauged+0.5%

After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2020Dollar edges higher as Fed outlook lifts U.S. yields | Financial Post-1.3%
• Jun 19, 2026Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside-0.6%
• Feb 2, 2021Dollar stands tall on better U.S. outlook vs Europe | Financial Post-0.2%
• Sep 28, 2018Dollar gains on euro woes, Fed rate outlook-1.4%
• Jul 26, 2019The Euro-Dollar Rate is In Line for Forecast Downgrades as ECB Eyes Stimulus-0.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.