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Commerzbank says EUR/USD has settled near 1.12 after falling from about 1.16 at the end of September, with options-implied volatility declining. The bank argues that the market expects the Fed and ECB to move in lockstep with only two to three further hikes priced in.
It warns that low FX volatility is not justified given rising geopolitical and fiscal risks.
A calm currency market can mask sudden swings that change the real cost of US-priced grain, oilseed and meal imports for European and other non-dollar buyers. Any policy or fiscal shock could quickly revive currency-driven price moves.
fxstreet.comFXStreet Insights TeamNov 2, 2026After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
