European natural gas prices fell to €102.5/MWh on Monday as Middle East diplomacy eased escalation fears. Rubio said diplomatic contacts with Iran remained active, and Iran and Qatar held talks in Doha.
Europe's gas storage was 74.62% full as of November 1, which is historically low.
Diplomatic progress reduces the geopolitical risk premium on LNG supply from the Gulf. Low storage ahead of winter still keeps upside price risk elevated.
After 162 past geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.2% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.0% to +7.5%), and +4.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.