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Indian fertiliser sales fell from April to September 2026 compared with 2025, including urea, as El Niño dry weather kept farmers from buying and applying inputs. All-India monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below normal, and October rainfall was 31.4% under normal.
Weaker fertiliser offtake signals lower application rates and possibly lower yields, which softens Indian urea demand and import needs, though food inflation risk rises.
indianexpress.comEditorialNov 2, 2026After 37 past weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (73% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +5.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
