GL Consulting, the Mysteel think tank, projects China's gasoline demand to fall 7.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, and diesel demand to fall 8.9% and 3.8%. China's LPG imports also fell sharply in September, down 21% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year.
Falling Chinese diesel and gasoline demand reduces global fuel import needs and weighs on oil prices, while lower LPG imports signal weaker energy-linked demand in China.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.