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ING's commodities feed says oil markets are nervous ahead of the US midterm elections, with fears of renewed US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Brent settled near $113 on Friday after the December contract expired at $117.64, and vessel attacks continue though Hormuz traffic is increasing.
Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha over the weekend.
Persian Gulf escalation risk keeps a geopolitical premium in crude, which feeds diesel and fertiliser costs for feed producers. If the midterms pass without strikes or a deal, that premium could start to unwind, pressuring energy prices lower.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa MantheyNov 2, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
