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South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee raised its 2025-26 maize estimate by 1% to 17.7 million tonnes, up 6% year on year and the largest on record. Maize prices have fallen from over R4,000 per tonne to about R3,700 for white and R3,800 for yellow, even as El Niño drought fears persist.
A record domestic harvest and about 2.4 million tonnes of opening stocks against 12.0 million tonnes of annual consumption keep regional maize supplies ample and cap prices, though prices are expected to firm as Southern African demand picks up.
wandile.substack.comWandile SihloboNov 1, 2026After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
