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Economists have revised Brazil's IPCA inflation projections for 2026, 2027 and 2028 higher after Lula's re-election, according to Folha de S.Paulo. The US dollar rose 9.2% against the real in the post-election week.
Research from BGC Liquidity and other market participants points to higher price expectations.
Higher inflation expectations and a weaker real raise the likelihood of tighter monetary policy and higher domestic food costs in Brazil. This reinforces a stronger dollar against the real, which supports Brazilian exporters' competitiveness in feed commodities.
ground.newsOct 31, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
