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USDA's December Cattle on Feed report showed feedlot inventories on December 1 at 11.739 million head, up 2% and the largest December total since 2011. November placements fell 5% year over year, the third straight monthly decline.
Lower carcass weights and aggressive marketings kept feedlots current.
Lower placements tighten feeder cattle supply ahead, which supports feeder prices, though large inventories and lighter carcass weights cap fed cattle gains. The price direction is bullish for feeders and neutral for fed cattle.
feedstuffs.comKrissa WelshansDec 31, 2018After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 78 past neutral report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Cattle on Feed report released on the move date showed a 5% drop in November placements, a third straight monthly decline, which signals tighter forward supply and likely supported futures even though inventories were up 2%.
