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Several USDA reports, including WASDE, Quarterly Grain Stocks, weekly export sales and the Livestock Slaughter and Cattle on Feed report, are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Economist Brenda Boetel says the market is trading on old information and the gap with reality could widen when reports resume.
Missing USDA data forces markets to trade on assumptions, raising volatility risk; a likely lower 2018 corn crop estimate could surprise when reports return.
agproud.comCarrie VeselkaJan 18, 2019After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 78 past neutral report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
