
India's government scrapped its wheat import duty, having cut it from 25 percent to 10 percent in September and then to zero. Global wheat prices rose more than 13 percent to $205-210 a tonne after the duty exemption was first speculated, and India's wheat output is estimated at 83 million tonnes.
Duty-free imports will draw more wheat into India at a time when global prices have already climbed, which supports world wheat prices and may reduce Indian farmer planting incentives.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.