Chinese fertilizer prices kept rising in late December 2016 because environmental inspections forced many factories to limit output. Basic products including urea, SOP, KCl, MKP and NOP were up more than 15% from November.
Environmental curbs on Chinese production cut supply and lift prices for urea and potash, which raises the cost of fertilizer for crops and reduces the export capacity that has kept world nitrogen prices down.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.