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Urea export prices fell about 27-28% in 2016 at most major export points, with Middle East granular averaging $206/t fob. Chinese urea exports dropped from nearly 14m tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 8.5m tonnes this year, and Chinese prilled urea lost its position as India's main supplier.
Lower Chinese export volumes have been partly offset by new output from Egypt, Algeria, Iran, the US and the FSU. Analysts expect Chinese production costs to ease in Q2 2017 and see a possible Chinese shortfall in spring, which could support urea prices.
profercy.comChris YearsleyDec 22, 2016After 23 past neutral trade events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.0%), and +2.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
