Indian farmers received low prices despite good 2016 production after a favorable monsoon. Demonetisation and falling domestic prices led to distress sales, and exports of oil meals, rice and other products declined in April-October 2016.
Wheat import duty was cut to zero.
Weak Indian export volumes of oil meals and rice reduce supply competition, while zero wheat import duty supports import demand, with limited overall price impact.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.