Wheat rose significantly on US exchanges on Thursday, with Chicago SRW up 16 cents and Kansas City HRW up 20 cents, largely on crude oil strength. US weekly export sales were weak at 203,100 tons, down about 16% week over week and 40% year over year.
Weak US export sales limit fundamental support, so price gains rely on energy spillover. Euronext May wheat rose €2.50, showing European prices following the same energy-driven move.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.