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A Texas A&M economist reviewed USDA's first 2017 WASDE, which cut US corn production by 78 million bushels and lowered ending stocks to 2.355 billion bushels. The season average farm price rose to $3.40 per bushel.
Corn stocks on December 1 were 22% above average.
Large carryover stocks limit upside price moves from small changes in acreage or yields, keeping corn prices under pressure.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.