ABARES raised its 2016-17 winter crop estimate 12% to a record 58.9Mt, with wheat at a record 35.1Mt and barley at 13.4Mt. Victoria's wheat crop was put at 5.2Mt, more than double last season, and its barley crop at a record 3.2Mt.
National canola output was 4.1Mt.
Larger Australian wheat and barley supplies increase export availability, which is bearish for world grain prices. Victoria's doubled output adds to the national surplus that buyers can source from.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.