Loading…
Brent crude fell about 6% in the week to around $84 a barrel as fears of a Middle East escalation receded. OPEC+ is set to meet in June to decide production targets for July onward, and Middle East tensions remain a focus.
The decline in the geopolitical risk premium lowers energy costs that feed into biofuel margins and freight, which can soften vegetable oil and corn support. OPEC+ decisions later in the period could reverse the trend.
capitaleconomics.comBill WeatherburnMay 3, 2024After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
