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Scotiabank reported that speculators switched from a large net long to a large net short in the Canadian dollar in the week to March 24, the largest week-on-week swing in net CAD positioning it had seen. The article links this to similar patterns in WTI crude futures positioning.
The loonie's move tracks crude, so continued oil weakness pushes the Canadian dollar lower and makes Canadian exports cheaper, a modest bearish factor for Canadian meal and oilseed prices.
theglobeandmail.comScott BarlowMar 27, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
