Brazil's central bank and finance minister denied a Bloomberg report that the government was considering raising the IOF tax on foreign exchange transactions to help meet the fiscal target. The real weakened as much as 1.9% to 3.1806 per dollar after the report.
Strong US jobs data also raised bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Fiscal measures that could weaken the real would make Brazilian exports cheaper and affect feed commodity competitiveness. The denial reduces the immediate currency risk, though a stronger dollar from Fed tightening remains a headwind for dollar-priced commodities.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.