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Brazil's Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron said the new fiscal framework is boosting investor confidence and drawing foreign demand for local bonds. The real has risen 2.6% since the plan was announced, leading gains among emerging-market currencies.
The framework caps spending growth at 70% of revenue growth, or 50% when budget targets are missed.
A stronger real makes dollar-priced Brazilian exports such as soybeans and corn relatively more expensive for importers and can slow farmer sales, a mild support for global prices. Falling interest rate expectations also weigh on the currency less than expected.
bloomberglinea.comMartha BeckApr 13, 2023After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
