
Illinois experienced record February warmth with 60- and 70-degree days, following a milder than normal January. State climatologist Jim Angel warned that early vegetation could be damaged by a later freeze, as happened in 2007 and 2012.
A false spring raises the risk of frost damage to early crops, a modest supply concern that could add small upside pressure to corn and wheat if a freeze follows.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.