
Harvest in the Riverina region of New South Wales is nearly complete after a dry winter and mid-harvest rain halted headers. Winter crop yields are forecast around 40% lower than last year, with wheat, barley and canola cuts cited from ABARES.
Local yield losses confirm the tight Australian supply picture, supporting feed grain and wheat export prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.