A CSIS newsletter reports that the US missile strike on a Syrian air base raised geopolitical risk and pushed Brent above $56, a five-week high. It adds that OPEC will meet in late May to decide whether to extend its supply cuts.
Geopolitical risk premiums and the OPEC extension decision both bear on crude prices, which influence diesel, natural gas and freight costs for feed supply chains.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.