Oil prices fell in the week before April 23 after doubts emerged over an OPEC extension. OECD inventories rose 70 million barrels in January and only modestly drew down in February and March, while US stocks are now starting to decline.
Lingering inventory overhang and uncertainty over an OPEC extension weigh on crude prices, which tends to pressure energy-linked costs and vegetable oil demand from biofuels.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.