
The USDA's April WASDE lowered its 2017 US milk production forecast by 200 million pounds to 217.3 billion, still up 2.3% from 2016. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey price forecasts were cut, lowering Class III and Class IV milk price projections.
Midwestern cheesemakers are cancelling planned downtime as surplus milk supplies build.
Large domestic and international dairy supplies point to weaker dairy product and milk prices through 2017, which reduces the value of milk relative to feed costs for dairy buyers. Lower milk prices also signal softer demand for dairy-based feed ingredients such as whey.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.