
USDA preliminary data show August US milk output in the 23 top states at 17 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent from a year earlier, with the 50-state total at 18.1 billion pounds, up 2 percent. Milk cow numbers were 9.41 million head nationally, 71,000 above a year ago, and output per cow rose across most major states.
Ample milk supply and rising cow numbers point to a bearish outlook for dairy prices and suggest abundant milk-based feed ingredients, such as dairy by-products, in the near term.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.