
Indian Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on 30 April 2017 there are no immediate plans to raise wheat import duty from 10% to 25%. Imports are not occurring at the current duty, and about 5.5 million tonnes were imported by private traders through March, mostly at zero duty.
With record domestic output near 98 million tonnes and procurement underway, India is unlikely to be a major wheat importer, so world wheat prices face little import demand pull. Stable duty policy keeps the bearish domestic supply picture intact.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.