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India reimposed a 10 percent basic customs duty on wheat and arhar (pigeon pea) dal with immediate effect, citing a projected record domestic crop. The duty reverses a December 2016 cut to zero that had been made to boost supply and cap retail prices.
A renewed 10 percent duty reduces India's import demand for wheat, which weighs on world wheat export prices as Indian buying falls.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.