Recent USDA reports gave few surprises and mixed signals, with March 1 stocks and the 2017 soybean planting forecast above expectations. Corn and wheat plantings came in below expectations.
Winter wheat conditions have improved significantly, and no major weather disaster is currently forecast.
Ample supplies of wheat, corn and soybeans through 2017 and 2018 suggest limited price support for feed grains.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.