
India's urea output is expected to dip marginally to 24.3 million tonnes in 2016-17 because low global prices made domestic production less viable. The government raised the cap on production beyond rated capacity to encourage manufacturers to produce more.
Lower Indian domestic output could increase reliance on imports, but the policy change partly offsets the decline and the overall effect on global urea prices is modest.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.