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Drought has spread across most French arable regions, with water shortage estimated at about 50% against a normal 25% for this time of year, according to the AGPB wheat producers' association. Northern and central France have been dry for six months, and crops are beginning to show stress with no significant rain forecast for about 10 days.
A second poor French wheat crop would tighten EU and global wheat supplies and support prices, since France is the EU's largest wheat exporter. Traders will watch rainfall closely over the coming weeks.
en.boerenbusiness.nlNiels van der BoomApr 21, 2017After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
