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Grain futures fell sharply after USDA data showed higher-than-expected soybean and wheat stocks and a large upward revision to 2023 wheat production. Wheat posted its largest one-day loss since March 2022, falling more than 6%.
Corn was also dragged lower despite a report that was not bearish for it.
The surprise wheat production increase and larger soybean stocks shift the balance sheet toward surplus. Feed buyers should expect continued weakness in grain and soybean meal values.
dailymarketminute.comSebastian FrostOct 1, 2023After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
It describes the large upward revision to 2023 wheat production and the biggest one-day loss since March 2022, which set the bearish tone, but the main drop came before the Oct 2 window.
