Congressional leaders introduced a bipartisan bill that would convert the biodiesel blender's credit into a $1-per-gallon production credit for three years. It adds a 10-cent-per-gallon credit for small producers.
The previous credit expired at the end of 2016.
A production credit of $1 per gallon would encourage domestic biodiesel output and soybean oil crush, supporting soy oil prices. Import competition from Argentina and Indonesia would be reduced.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.