OANDA previews a holiday-shortened week of key US data, including PCE and payrolls, ahead of a possible June Fed rate hike. It also notes Chinese yuan (CNH) volatility after a stronger CNY fixing and a funding squeeze, with the euro trading near 1.113 after a Greece headline.
Expectations of a June Fed hike and US inflation data drive dollar direction, while yuan fixing changes affect Chinese import demand sentiment for dollar-priced feed commodities.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.