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Markets are pricing in the possibility that inflation will accelerate under the incoming Trump administration. The administration has promised tax cuts, lower immigration and higher trade tariffs.
Expected tariffs and tighter policy could lift US inflation and slow Federal Reserve rate cuts, which supports the dollar and weighs on commodity prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.