Analyst Dorab Mistry outlined three scenarios for crude palm oil prices in 2017, with his preferred case holding prices near RM3,000 per tonne until the fourth quarter. His bullish case rests on a possible El Niño developing in Southeast Asia by June and lower Malaysian and Indonesian output.
A renewed El Niño risk to Southeast Asian palm output is the main upside driver, while tight stocks support prices in the near term.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.