Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he would support a plan to shift the biodiesel tax credit from blenders to producers, as proposed by Senators Grassley and Cantwell. The bipartisan American Renewable Fuel and Job Creation Act would extend the credit for three years.
Administration support improves the chances of a producer's credit, which would favor domestic biodiesel output over imports and support soybean oil demand. Details are still pending, so the price effect is modest.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.