What will be the trigger to push grain prices higher?

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 16 past neutral weather events, Oats moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Apr 27, 2018Oats planting set to roll in WA - Grain Central+2.3%
• Mar 27, 2019Rain prospects remain unclear for April-June - Grain Central+1.8%
• Aug 26, 2020Oat harvest begins in east central Saskatchewan | paNOW+2.1%
• Feb 11, 2019Oats Hit the Bullseye for Growers, Millers - Seed World-3.0%
• May 17, 2017Prairie oats at tipping point - Grainews+5.0%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 9, 2018Winter crop weather prospects hard to call + VIDEO - Grain Central-1.1%
• Jul 22, 2018New grain prices move higher | QLD+2.5%
• Sep 9, 2019Feedgrain Focus: Prices firm as thin crops turn to hay - Beef Central-0.8%
• Apr 24, 2021Grain prices pushed higher as weather worries grow - Farmers Weekly+3.3%
• Oct 8, 2020Wheat price rally fuelled by Russia - Grain Central+0.0%