Data from the University of Illinois show US biodiesel producers remained profitable in 2017 despite the expiration of the $1 per gallon biodiesel tax credit. The National Biodiesel Board said RIN prices and RFS volumes are driving the market, and it is urging Congress to reinstate the credit prospectively.
Continued profitability suggests biodiesel production and soybean oil demand can hold up without the tax credit, as long as RIN values hold. Reinstatement of the credit would be a further bullish factor for soybean oil.
After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.