
Ag economist David Widmar notes soybean oil prices rose from about 30 to more than 70 cents per pound as biodiesel demand grew. The American Bakers Association has petitioned the EPA to roll back some Renewable Fuel Standard biodiesel mandates.
Widmar says increased soybean oil use for biodiesel has been building for years and is now more evident.
A possible reduction in biodiesel mandates would cut a major source of soybean oil demand, creating downside risk. The outcome of the bakers' petition remains uncertain, so the price effect is currently balanced.
After 196 past neutral policy events, SBO moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.