An Advanced Energy United blog post describes the US biofuels market as driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard, with the EPA expanding volumes by about 1.2 billion gallons for 2016 and 1.17 billion for 2017. It says the new targets are less constrained by the ethanol blend wall, although biofuel revenues have taken a hit.
Higher RFS volumes that are less constrained by the blend wall support continued demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks. The revenue pressure on producers limits how much additional production capacity will be built.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.