Oil prices surged on Monday, with WTI testing $50 a barrel for the first time since May and Brent heading toward $53. Analysts cited large inventory drawdowns, Saudi Arabia's supply discipline ahead of the Aramco IPO, and planned US sanctions on Venezuela, alongside a weaker dollar.
Higher crude prices raise diesel and freight costs for feed manufacturers and can support biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils and grains. The weaker dollar adds further support to commodity prices.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.