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Argentina's president cancelled a 6% import duty on high-quality DAP from Russia, according to PhosAgro. The company is considering higher fertilizer sales to Argentina, which it estimates at 300-350 kt of DAP.
Removing the duty opens an extra 300-350 kt of Russian DAP supply to Argentina, which is mildly bearish for DAP prices in that market.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.